Bitcoin Price Correction Continues: What’s Next for BTC?

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been experiencing a correction since reaching its local peak of $28,580 on October 2. Bears have managed to bring the price of the leading cryptocurrency down to the $26,500 area. What’s in store for BTC price?

Critical Metric in BTC!

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator shows the ongoing battle between fear and optimism zones. Despite starting 2023 with a rise and escaping the surrender zone, Bitcoin price corrections continue to turn towards the fear zone.

At its current position, Bitcoin’s risk index has reached its lowest levels, keeping the cryptocurrency market in the optimism zone and potentially starting a new bull market. NUPL is an on-chain measurement that calculates the difference between relative unrealized profit and relative unrealized loss.

Another way to calculate this ratio is to subtract the realized market value from the total market value and divide the result by the latter. The NUPL chart includes five horizontal areas interpreted from a market psychology perspective, ranging from the red capitulation level to the blue area of enthusiasm and greed.

The intermediate areas have both bullish and bearish interpretations depending on whether the chart cuts through the zone during a bull or bear market. At its current position, Bitcoin’s NUPL metric is in the yellow, fairly neutral optimism zone at 0.26. At the same time, the indicator is close to the orange fear level, which started after dropping below 0.25.

The optimism zone is the highest level Bitcoin NUPL has been since the beginning of 2023. Around mid-January, the indicator was consolidating at its lowest capitulation level, but it turned optimistic as the cryptocurrency market quickly recovered.

Expert Opinion on BTC

However, the possibility of a deeper correction and testing the $20,000 region could still push NUPL into the depths of the fear zone. On the other hand, looking at the same indicator for short-term holders (STH), we see that new investors are still experiencing capitulation.

NUPL for STH only considers UTXOs that are less than 155 days old. In other words, it calculates unrealized profit/loss for new Bitcoin holders. Since mid-August, short-term investors have been experiencing constant capitulation. The analyst adds that the indicator turning green and indicating a possible jump in STH profit/loss momentum could lead to two possible scenarios for Bitcoin: the final profit-taking before a deep correction or a return of strength. Finally, in the context of the macro market, the analyst also mentioned that he leans towards the second scenario.