Investors are not seeing a significant recovery in the price of BTC due to the negative macro outlook. The king of crypto is back below $26,000. On the other hand, the next Fed meeting will take place on September 20, where the expectations for a three-year interest rate will be announced. Important data was also released today, so what are investors expecting?
Previous US Data for the Fed
Yesterday, we mentioned the pressure that the increase in oil prices would create on inflation. The latest data suggests that the decline in inflation may slow down along with wage increases. With the addition of the September increases in fuel prices, the possibility of the Fed delaying the interest rate ceiling further increases. Even if the interest rate ceiling is announced this month, estimates suggest that the earliest interest rate cut could occur in early Q2. This is how today’s BTC price is formed. Despite historical lows in altcoins, there is no demand, and concerns about further decline continue.
The Fed has many reasons to maintain its hawkish stance on September 20. Today, the following PMI data was announced. If the PMI data, which is one of the most important indicators of vitality in the economy, comes above expectations and above 50, it can be interpreted that the Fed’s efforts to cool the economy are not working.
- Service PMI: 50.5 (Expectation: 51)
- Composite PMI: 50.2 (Expectation: 50.4)
It is good that the data came below expectations, but the September 1 Production PMI data was high. After the data was announced, the price of Bitcoin dropped to $25,700. It would not be surprising for the market buzz to continue until the September 20 meeting. However, if the Fed continues its overly cautious stance in light of the data, it would mean blocking the expected rise for the halving. In the midst of one of the longest bear markets in history, we still cannot see a signal for a comeback for BTC today.
