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Analyst Michael van de Poppe today made a significant assessment for the Bitcoin price. The analyst questions whether the BTC price will be $100,000 in the next few months. Noting that Bitcoin is accelerating, the analyst highlights that the market has reversed from the $39,000 level, reaching a peak of $53,000 due to the great interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs. So, what do these developments mean?
Emphasis on Bitcoin Sentiment
The analyst states that sentiment is always a misleading indicator. Van de Poppe points out that emotions often go beyond reality, mentioning recent examples of sentiment. According to the analyst, for instance, rumors about ETF approvals strengthened expectations that Bitcoin would reach new ATHs. However, this potential approval led to a strong rise in the markets, which had already reflected this strength. The analyst notes that emotional reactions can negatively affect trading and investments, as sentiments often exceed actual price movements.
Another example, according to the analyst, is related to a real correction in Bitcoin. This situation created a negative sentiment in the markets. This sentiment was particularly associated with expectations related to exits from GBTC. The analyst continues his commentary on the current momentum, noting that the increasing interest in spot ETFs has created significant momentum in the markets. However, whether this interest will continue or how it might change due to other factors remains uncertain.
According to the analyst, emotional reactions can always exceed reality and affect price movement, which can lead to investors losing money. Consequently, the analyst believes that markets always price in events. This shows that sentiment and emotional reactions may have limited ability to understand the real value.
What Should Your Game Plan Be If You Want to Invest in Bitcoin?
According to analyst van de Poppe, it is necessary to distinguish between trading plans and swing trading goals. Swing trading appears as a speculative strategy where investors buy and hold assets to profit from expected price movements.
When determining a trading strategy, the analyst points out that factors such as the holding period of the asset and the time frames used for analysis should be considered. For example, Poppe suggests that if you have short-term goals, it may not make sense to buy an asset that has gained 35% in value within 10 days. Similarly, the same applies to swing trading goals.
The analyst emphasizes risk appetite and long-term goals when setting investment objectives. Starting to invest in an asset like Bitcoin, he says, it would be sensible to expect a standard correction of 20-40%. The analyst mentions that during this process, one may encounter some critical points, such as buying during corrections and maintaining emotional control.
However, according to the analyst, if you have long-term goals and believe that Bitcoin will rise above $150,000 in the next 2-3 years, there is no harm in starting to invest at these price levels. In this case, entering the markets with an upward move can be as valid a strategy as taking a position during correction periods.
What Should the Expectations Be?
Poppe points out that recent macroeconomic developments have been somewhat negative, citing last week’s CPI as a bit high and suggesting that a correction could occur in the coming days.
The analyst says that these corrections will be swift, predicting a rise for Bitcoin to the $53,000 to $58,000 range followed by a 20-40% drop. Although the analyst cannot give a timeframe for these corrections, he emphasizes that they could happen in the coming weeks or even in March. Despite not providing a specific date, the analyst indicates that Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in a few months is not on the cards.
