Crypto currency analyst Bit Paine, in a recent post on his personal account on the social media platform X, offered an intriguing prediction that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $1 million by January 3, 2025. Paine provided an in-depth analysis, listing the fundamental factors that could trigger this significant value increase.
Analyst Draws Attention to Potential Supply Shock in Bitcoin Market
Paine’s analysis is based on the next five years, during which approximately 750,000 new BTC are expected to be mined. Drawing from historical examples, the analyst predicts that 20-30% of the current Bitcoin supply will be offered for sale during the upcoming bull market. However, Paine anticipates that due to various compelling reasons, only 10-15% of the supply will enter circulation, leading to a supply shock.
Among the compelling reasons highlighted by the analyst are the emergence from a prolonged bear market, an increase in the number of Bitcoin maximalists, a decrease in the significance of altcoins as an asset class (reduced fund flow to altcoins), and Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as a reserve asset class. Taking these factors into account, Paine predicts that an additional 2-6 million BTC will enter the market, bringing the total circulating supply to approximately 2.75-6.75 million.
The primary driving force behind the analyst’s predicted price increase is the expected capital inflow into the Bitcoin market. Paine estimates that in the next five years, $1-5 trillion in capital will flow into the market due to the asset’s increased accessibility for both institutional and individual investors.
Paine’s analysis aligns with the idea that most gains in the Bitcoin market typically occur in the first year following the block reward halving, which is characterized by speculative fervor. According to this idea, gains peak after the block reward halving and then tend to decrease gradually.
Bitcoin Plummets After Surpassing $45,000
Following optimism related to the potential approval of spot Bitcoin funds (spot Bitcoin ETFs) that buoyed the crypto currency market, the price of the largest crypto currency reached its highest level since April 2022, surpassing $45,000 on January 2nd. Bitcoin reached a new 21-month high of $45,922, marking a strong start to the new year. However, on January 3rd, BTC’s price fell by about $3,000, reversing the situation. The drop was triggered by rumors that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might once again reject all spot ETF applications, as it has done numerous times in the past.
Investors are currently focused on the SEC’s decision regarding the spot Bitcoin ETF. Approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. regulator is considered critical as it could open the crypto currency market to a broader investor base and attract significant investment into the market.
