And of course, more comments on the month of September. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $56,000 today. Risk appetite has weakened in the process that has been ongoing for months. Historical data is the only thing keeping investors on their feet for medium and long-term goals. Moreover, unlike past cycles, we even have ETFs for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum. So, what are the predictions of different analysts in light of historical data?
Bitcoin Historical Data and Predictions
Bitcoin (BTC) has made similar moves during the dull periods it has experienced for the past 6 months. CryptoCon wrote that the decline to the support zone in September 2016 is being experienced again this period, indicating that we have not yet seen the phase of the cycle that will bring great gains.
“Just like in September 2016, entering the support zone after the mid-peak, the same thing happened in 2024. In fact, for alternating cycles, all months have been exactly the same for support zone entries. The 3-model here has not yet failed in the middle of the cycle or in the bear market. The cycle is not over yet! We are reliving September 2016.”
Crypto Daan, on the other hand, says that investors should not have very positive expectations in September in light of historical data. Experts like Rekt Capital pointed to the end of September at best, not mid-September, even last month for a rise. Daan wrote the following about an hour ago;
“Historically, September is the worst month for Bitcoin (BTC). Its average return over the past 12 years is -4.36%. This corresponds to the level it is trading at today.
People seem to be preparing for an absolute -50% collapse within a month. It is never that severe.”
2024 and 2025 Bitcoin Target
Just as 2022 was a period of extreme sales, we should also see days when the RSI reaches historic peaks monthly at some point. If BTC is not going to zero and the 4-year cycle stories are ending, this is exactly what we should witness. Kyledoops, in his latest assessment a few hours ago, says we are on the verge of a major fluctuation as in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
The analyst who shared the above chart believes that relying on historical data could be a good way, and wrote the following;
“Bitcoin’s price action currently reflects the calm before the storm and marks the end of the Blue Year, a significant, quiet period setting the stage for the explosive ‘Red Year’.
Historically, this phase has come before all-time highs, as seen in 2012, 2016, and 2020, indicating the next major fluctuation on the horizon.”
Still, it is important not to get too stuck on historical data because when these are violated, you will see headlines like “it happened for the first time” triggering your disappointment.
SETH, ETH
