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Bitcoin price disappointed moderately in August after declines at the beginning and end of the month. The broader outlook for Bitcoin remains bearish, but some macro-financial developments could change this outcome. Bitcoin’s price is currently below $60,000 after a 7.5% drop in the past week.
What’s Happening on the Bitcoin Front?
Investors may continue this trend until the “Uptober” month, where they expect Bitcoin’s recovery to persist. Paybis’ Founder and CEO Innokenty Isers shared the following insights:
“September has historically been a negative month for Bitcoin, with data showing an average depletion rate of 6.56%. So far this month, investor sentiment around Bitcoin has been negative as the token traded between $49,000 and $66,000.”
This result aligns with the position of the macro Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. The MVRV ratio assesses investor profit and loss. Currently, Bitcoin’s 90-day MVRV data is -4.8%, indicating profitability and potential buying pressure. Historically, Bitcoin MVRV data between -2% and -12% has marked the beginning of recoveries and uptrends. Examples include mid-June 2023, early October 2023, and more recently, early July this year.
Investors tend to add Bitcoin to their wallets in such situations, marking -2% to -12% as an accumulation opportunity zone. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin will be on its way to recording an uptrend and preparing for a significant increase towards the end of the month.
Bitcoin Chart Analysis
There are two outcomes for Bitcoin’s price in September. The first is a more practical approach, suggesting Bitcoin will stay below $68,300 based on recent clues. This resistance has prevented the crypto king from breaking out several times, and given the bearish conditions, this could happen again.
The second outcome is a breakout above the descending broadening wedge at $68,300. This pattern, in place since early March, suggests a breakout could result in a 22% increase. Though unlikely, Bitcoin could form a new all-time high above $73,800.
Similarly, the aforementioned accumulation and interest rate cut factors must materialize, and only an increase above $70,000 can confirm this bullish outcome. However, if Bitcoin’s price doesn’t even surpass $65,000, consolidation below this resistance and above $57,040 is likely. This could invalidate the bullish thesis and delay Bitcoin’s uptrend to early or mid-October.
