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This week marks one of the most anticipated moments in the history of cryptocurrency. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will finally announce its decision on whether to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. The likelihood of the SEC approving ETFs is considered high, and this expectation has led to the largest cryptocurrency‘s price rising over 60% in just the last three months.
All Eyes on the SEC’s Spot Bitcoin ETF Decision
Currently, there are 13 companies, including BlackRock, Invesco, Fidelity, Grayscale, Ark, Bitwise, and VanEck, with spot Bitcoin ETF applications pending before the SEC. ETF experts expect the U.S. regulator to approve multiple ETF applications at once between January 8-10 to level the competitive playing field.
Experts see a 90% chance of the SEC approving the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, and they anticipate that the current rally in the cryptocurrency market will continue if approval is granted. The excitement is further heightened by the fourth Bitcoin halving event, or the Bitcoin block reward halving, which will follow the ETF decision in April 2024.
What Are Experts Saying About the Spot Bitcoin ETF?
There are those who see the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF as a direct trigger for a bull market, similar to the “buy the rumor, sell the news” approach. The bullish scenario is built on the increase in both individual and institutional demand for Bitcoin through legally regulated spot ETFs and the reduction in Bitcoin supply due to the fourth block reward halving.
Owen Lau from Oppenheimer emphasized that fund flows are an important signal in the market and that initial weak flows could create selling pressure on Bitcoin’s price. Bitwise pointed to a survey showing that only 39% of financial advisors expect an ETF to be launched this year, but 88% believe its approval would be a significant catalyst.
Acheson and Tyrone Ross, CEO of Onramp Invest, think the initial market reaction could be disappointing, but the situation may become interesting in the medium and long term as financial advisors become more knowledgeable about the cryptocurrency class.
Worthington from JPMorgan noted that the rally initially started with the expectation of the launch of cryptocurrency spot ETFs, particularly spot Bitcoin ETFs, and that continued high activity, volume, and prices could support the rally.
