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ARK Invest has revised its long-term forecast for Bitcoin 
$103,168, projecting a price target of approximately $2.4 million by 2030. This report presents a comprehensive modeling framework based on assumptions regarding Bitcoin’s total market potential, adoption trends, and supply dynamics, providing a detailed insight into the cryptocurrency‘s future.
2030 Bitcoin Predictions
The target price indicates an estimated annual compound growth rate of around 72% between December 31, 2024, and December 31, 2030. ARK Invest also provides predictions for a base case of $1.2 million (53% CAGR) and a pessimistic scenario of $500,000 (32% CAGR).
The report highlights that institutional investment will contribute significantly to the optimistic scenario.
ARK Invest official stated, “Institutional investment is the key component of our optimistic scenario.”
It is anticipated that 6.5% of the global financial market portfolio, excluding gold (valued at $200 trillion), will form the basis for future investments in Bitcoin.
The Impact of Institutional Investment
The report evaluates Bitcoin’s characterization as “digital gold,” suggesting it could offer a more transparent and agile model for storing value. If Bitcoin captures 60% of the $18 trillion market value of gold, its contribution to the optimistic scenario is expected to exceed one-third of the total value.
Demand from emerging markets is also identified as a significant factor. ARK Invest notes that the cryptocurrency will serve as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation in developing countries. This use case is projected to contribute approximately 13.5% to Bitcoin’s $2.4 million valuation at a market penetration rate of 6%.
Furthermore, developments in government treasuries, corporate cash reserves, and the on-chain financial services ecosystem are expected to positively impact Bitcoin. Additional analyses indicate that ignoring long-held or lost Bitcoins has led to an increase in the target price from $1.5 million to $2.4 million based on active supply.
ARK Invest emphasizes that the scarcity of Bitcoin and the lost supply are not adequately reflected in current valuation models, suggesting there might be upward potential beyond existing predictions.
ARK Invest official remarked, “The scarcity and lost supply of Bitcoin are not accounted for in most current valuation models.”
The modeling and assumptions presented in the report aim to inform about the future market dynamics of Bitcoin, delivering a detailed analysis for investors and market observers. This analysis is significant in providing perspective on the growing role of digital assets in financial portfolios.
