Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes anticipates a 30% correction in Bitcoin 
$105,116 prices this year, followed by a potential surge to $250,000. He believes this potential dip is a crucial aspect of the market’s progression.
Impending Financial Crisis
Hayes forecasts that a collapse in the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond market could trigger a mini financial crisis. He highlights that this scenario would compel the Federal Reserve to reinstate its money-printing policy.
Impact on Altcoin Markets
Should Hayes’ predictions materialize, he suggests that many altcoins may suffer a value decline exceeding 50% during the crisis, presenting accumulation opportunities before the market rebounds.
“I believe this bull cycle is not over; however, a 30% correction in Bitcoin makes a rise to $250,000 by year-end more probable.”
Hayes asserts that a rise in U.S. Treasury yields to 5-6% could serve as a crisis trigger, leading to increased interest rates on mortgages and other loans. He expects the Federal Reserve to address the fallout by increasing liquidity after the crisis hits.
“The Federal Reserve is expected to mitigate the damage of such a mini-crisis through monetary policy, but it will likely do so post-crisis.”
$TRUMP Memecoin Signals
Hayes points out that the launch of the $TRUMP memecoin may indicate speculative bubble behavior. He warns that if Bitcoin declines, the altcoin market will face significant setbacks.
“The shitcoin sector will face Armageddon if Bitcoin drops, and I genuinely want to play here.”
Nevertheless, Hayes acknowledges that his predictions carry a 25% success rate by the end of 2024, emphasizing the unpredictability of short-term macroeconomic forecasts. Therefore, he urges market participants to remain vigilant regarding potential fluctuations in Bitcoin and altcoin markets.
