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Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, published a review titled “Volatility Supercycle,” reflecting on his short-term market forecasts. He noted he made eight macroeconomic-based predictions, of which two were accurate while he missed the mark on six. Despite these discrepancies, Hayes expressed that the outcomes did not disturb him as he continues to achieve profits.
Yellen and T-Bill Prediction
In his essay “Bad Gurl,” written in November 2023, Hayes predicted that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen would increase T-bill issuances. He indicated this move would withdraw funds from the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Program (RRP), leading to increased liquidity in the system and a rise in the value of risky assets. He also anticipated the market would soften as the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) concluded in March 2024.
Heatwave and Tax Season Expectations
In his April 2024 piece titled “Heatwave,” Hayes forecasted that the tax season in the U.S. would cause a decline in cryptocurrency prices. Consequently, he preferred not to acquire more cryptocurrencies between April 15 and May 1. His predictions coincided with a 33% increase in the RRP, a 9% rise in Bitcoin 
$103,331, while the S&P 500 index fell by 1% and gold dropped by 3%.
Interest Rate Cuts and Market Reactions
In “Boom Times … Delayed,” written in September 2024, Hayes predicted that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts would lead to negative reactions in the markets. However, on September 18, the Fed’s 50 basis points cut positively influenced the markets. Recently, Bitcoin’s price increased by 3.2%, testing levels above $64,500.
Hayes also noted that various quantitative easing measures adopted by governments would have favorable impacts on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. He shared insights on how market participants could benefit from the anticipated rise in Bitcoin prices.
Hayes acknowledged that many of his past predictions did not materialize but emphasized that he still obtained gains overall. He remains content, particularly due to the success of some macroeconomic-based forecasts.
Beyond his predictions, Hayes assessed the general trends in the market and the future of cryptocurrencies. He emphasized the likelihood of continued volatility in the crypto market, urging investors to be prepared for this variability.
Hayes’s evaluations highlight the uncertainties within the cryptocurrency market and the need for investors to develop strategies to cope with these uncertainties. It serves as a reminder that even experienced individuals like Hayes have a significant margin of error, suggesting that investors should create their own strategies independently.
