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According to predictors on the Polymarket platform, the likelihood of President Joe Biden withdrawing from the U.S. presidential race is increasing. This rise in probability follows Biden’s recent Covid-19 diagnosis and his statement that he would consider withdrawing if faced with a serious medical condition.
Biden Stated He Might Withdraw If Necessary
In a recent interview with BET News, Biden indicated that he would reconsider his candidacy if diagnosed with a medical issue. When asked by BET News’ Ed Gordon if there was a specific condition that would make him reconsider, Biden responded that he would consider stepping down if doctors informed him of significant health problems.
The possibility of Biden withdrawing first increased after his debate with Republican candidate Donald Trump, where his performance received significant criticism from stakeholders and the media. This event caused Biden’s withdrawal probability on Polymarket to jump from 36% to 70%. Biden later attributed his poor debate performance to jet lag and a hectic travel schedule.
Following a public relations campaign to reaffirm his candidacy and denials from potential replacement candidates, Biden’s withdrawal probability dropped back to 36%. However, the uncertainty surrounding his campaign led to repeated fluctuations in these probabilities.
When actor and long-time Democratic supporter George Clooney publicly stated that Biden should resign, there was a notable increase in the odds, temporarily raising the “Yes” side of the withdrawal contract to 66%. These rates further fluctuated during the Republican National Convention and after Trump’s campaign selected a popular candidate.
Biden’s Covid-19 diagnosis added another dimension to the situation, again raising the withdrawal probability. Currently, Biden’s withdrawal likelihood is approaching an all-time high of 68%. Additionally, the probability of him withdrawing before the Democratic convention in August is climbing and is now at 59%.
Trump Leads by a Wide Margin
Polymarket’s election tracking shows Trump significantly ahead with 64% compared to Biden’s 12%. Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris remains at 19%. These figures reflect ongoing fluctuations and speculations in the political landscape as the election approaches.
