Benjamin Cowen, a crypto analyst, highlighted that in the past, especially in the first half of the pre-whale years, Bitcoin tended to break the bull market support band consisting of the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 21-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) to the upside. However, in the third quarter, it generally fell below this support band.
Cowen presented examples from previous years, specifically 2011, 2015, and 2019, before the block reward halvings. While acknowledging that past price patterns do not guarantee future price movements, he urged investors to consider the possibility of Bitcoin falling below the bull market support band before the block reward halving in April 2024 and to be cautious.
With a market capitalization of $572.69 billion, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, is currently trading at $29,459, recording a 0.71% increase in the last 24 hours.
Such a scenario could also affect other altcoins, especially Ethereum (ETH), which is already trading below the bull market support band. Cowen emphasized that Ethereum is currently very close to falling below the 20-week EMA in 2019 (around $1,859) and is nearing the level from which it initiated a downward trend for the second half of the year.
The largest altcoin is currently trading at $1,877, with a 1.08% increase in the last 24 hours. Traders and investors will need to closely monitor price movements in the coming weeks and months to determine whether the bull market support band will hold for both BTC and ETH. Otherwise, they may be caught unprepared for a broader decline that also affects altcoins.
As with all technical analyses, it is important to remember that the market is subject to various factors, and past price patterns are not always indicative of future performance.