The prominent cryptocurrency options exchange, Deribit, is preparing for a significant options expiration event, with approximately $1.61 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) 
$103,750 and Ethereum (ETH) 
$3,842 options set to expire. Scheduled for tomorrow at 11:00 AM Turkish time, this event includes $1.32 billion in BTC options and $290 million in ETH options. Such large expiration events often lead to increased volatility in the cryptocurrency markets, making them critical for investors to monitor closely.
Bitcoin’s Maximum Pain Point and Market Sentiment
For Bitcoin, the put/call ratio stands at 0.84, indicating a slight preference for call options over put options. The maximum pain point, where most options expire worthless and limit payouts to option sellers, is identified at $58,000. Although not a guaranteed predictor of price movement, this level is crucial in demonstrating where the market might gravitate during the expiration period.
The put/call ratio, which measures the volume of put options against call options, offers insights into market sentiment. For both BTC and ETH, a ratio below 1 often suggests bullish sentiment, with more call options anticipating price rises. Bitcoin’s ratio of 0.84 reflects a balanced yet slightly bullish outlook, while ETH’s ratio of 0.73 indicates a stronger bullish trend.
Potential Volatility from Expiration Event
The maximum pain points for BTC and ETH, linked to the highest open interest, reflect the strike prices where option holders receive the least payment. As expiration approaches, underlying assets may trade closer to these levels due to market participants’ hedging activities. However, market prices can significantly deviate from these levels due to broader market conditions.
Tomorrow’s Deribit expiration event, one of the largest in recent weeks, demands close attention from investors. The expiration could affect the short-term price direction of BTC and ETH, potentially increasing market volatility at expiration.
