Approximately $2.7 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire on May 24, providing valuable insights into crypto market sentiment. According to a post by Greeks live on X, 21,000 Bitcoin options are set to expire with a put/call ratio of 0.88. This indicates an almost equal balance between buyers and sellers, with a slight tilt towards call options.
Futures Market and Bitcoin
Meanwhile, the maximum liquidation point, representing the price at which most option buyers would incur losses, is at $67,000, corresponding to a nominal value of $1.4 billion. While the expiration of 21,000 contracts is noteworthy, it pales in comparison to the significantly larger event on May 31, when $4.3 billion worth of options will expire, as reported by Deribit.
Deribit data reveals that long positions predominantly control open interest (OI), with a significant amount of $830 million tied to the $70,000 strike price. Moreover, higher strike prices, particularly at the $100,000 level, have substantial OI of $843 million, indicating bullish sentiment among traders.
With an open interest of $388 million, the $60,000 strike price stands out as the most notable for put contracts. This significant OI indicates that many contracts remain unresolved, and the open interest represents the unresolved value of contracts waiting to be settled, revealing that bulls are confident in much higher Bitcoin prices.
Details Attract Attention
The options expiration event is not limited to Bitcoin; significant 350,000 Ethereum contracts representing a notional value of $1.3 billion are also expiring. A put/call ratio of 0.58 and a maximum liquidation point of $3,200 indicate a slightly bullish tone, with more call options expiring than put options.
According to Greeks live’s report, Ethereum recently led a crypto rally with a one-day 20% increase, inspired by progress in the ETF application process. Short-term options show that implied volatility (IV) reached 150% at one point, significantly higher than Bitcoin’s current IV during the same period.
However, the difference between Bitcoin and Ethereum is now evident. While Ethereum’s bullish sentiment remains strong, maintaining high IV levels for each main period is challenging from a market trade and structure perspective. This suggests that calendar spreads might be a better choice. In contrast, Bitcoin appears more balanced between long and short positions, with stronger call selling power.
