Experienced cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten, known for his accurate predictions, has warned crypto investors that Bitcoin (BTC) could collapse if the US economy enters a recession. Merten highlighted that if the Federal Reserve’s hawkishness leads to a prolonged recession in the economy, Bitcoin could drop by over 46% from its current price. According to the analyst, a drop in commodities such as oil, natural gas, and uranium would indicate the approaching of a short-term recession:
A short-term recession will cause some pain. Stocks will likely return to their lowest levels, towards the bottom level we saw in October 2022, which was a 33% correction. Bitcoin may return to the dip range around $15,000 to $17,000 that we saw before, and this would actually be a pretty good scenario. Many assets will have formed a double bottom.
Furthermore, Merten does not expect a strong and sustained bull market for the largest cryptocurrency and altcoins until the Federal Reserve starts increasing liquidity in the markets to support the economy. When discussing this issue, the analyst said:
There hasn’t been a notable Bitcoin trend. For example, we have been sideways from March to October, and this doesn’t look like a bull market to me at all. We broke the ascending channel, but we couldn’t surpass the clear resistance between $28,000 and $32,000. I think it’s time to adopt a conservative approach when it comes to predicting where the cryptocurrency market is heading.
I believe we need to be patient and wait for real signs of optimism and specifically signs that liquidity will be in our favor because the cryptocurrency market is incredibly dependent on liquidity. Liquidity is the lifeblood for risky assets like Bitcoin.
At the end of the day, Bitcoin is an asset that performs best when there is an increase in the circulating money supply and essentially an increase in the risk-taking mentality, and none of these are happening right now.