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After the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, we discussed the possibility of a surge in ETF demand alongside spot prices. Moreover, the current demand for ETFs primarily originates from clients of asset management firms. I believe the real surge in FOMO will be triggered when global asset managers start showing interest in these products.
Morgan Stanley and Bitcoin
According to sources familiar with the matter, Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley is evaluating the inclusion of spot bitcoin ETF products on its brokerage platform. I must add a note here. Currently, spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have been seeing volumes over $3 billion for several days, are still in their infancy.
Most asset management firms, investment advisors, and offices have not yet decided whether spot Bitcoin ETFs are investable assets. This means that the majority of current investors consist of client portfolios from issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity. Even they have not fully embraced these ETFs yet, thus their potential remains untapped.
The scenario we are likely to see unfolds as follows;
- BlackRock and others offer these spot Bitcoin ETFs to all their clients. (This stage is just beginning)
- Financial giants like Morgan Stanley classify these products as investable assets for their clients.
- By June or July, Morgan Stanley and other major players complete their reviews, while independent investors decide whether to offer these products.
The Future of Spot Bitcoin ETFs
After the third stage, spot Bitcoin ETFs will truly open up to the world, potentially reaching daily trading volumes of $10 billion to $15 billion. Daily inflows could hit $3-4 billion. Considering the $200 billion active trading supply of BTC, this could write the real story of the upcoming bull season.
When Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and others make their final decisions, the true potential will be revealed. For now, we expect these decisions to be made as early as April, with most occurring around June or July.
