Bitcoin: Is It Really in a Bear Market? Famous Analysts Share Interesting Insights
According to some industry observers, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are not in the longest bear market yet, and they may not even be in a bear market at all. The discussion that started with MichaÃ«l van de Poppe suggesting that Bitcoin is in its longest bear market period has garnered comments from many well-known figures.
MichaÃ«l van de Poppe, the founder of MN Trading, claimed in a post he published on X on August 27th that Bitcoin is currently in the longest bear market in history.
“Currently, the price of Bitcoin is not even close to the peak value in November 21st. It has dropped more than 50% and is in a 490-day bear market.”
Van de Poppe’s statement received great interest from X users, and at the time of writing this article, it had garnered 1.3 million views and approximately a thousand shares. However, some crypto enthusiasts are sure that the information provided by Van de Poppe is not accurate. It is important to understand that there are different interpretations of this term to determine the length of the current bear market in crypto.
Mati Greenspan, the founder of Quantum Economics, stated in an interview that bull and bear market terms are entirely subjective. He said that it can mean that the price has moved in the past or that the price is expected to move in a certain direction in the future, and added:
“Uncertainty creates infinite opportunities for analysts to have meaningless debates forever.”
According to analyst Allen Scott, the current market situation can be seen as a multi-year bear market until a new all-time high is reached. This perspective shows that Bitcoin has been in a bear market for 659 days since reaching its historical peak of nearly $69,000 on November 10, 2021. This period is even longer than the one mentioned by Van de Poppe, but it is still not the longest bear market based on this approach.
Looking at historical data, Bitcoin once saw its price below previous all-time highs for 37 months, or approximately 1,125 days, between November 2013 and January 2017. For over three years, the price of Bitcoin did not recover the $1,000 mark after reaching its ATH level in 2013.
After reaching $20,000 for the first time in December 2017, Bitcoin remained below that price level for 1,095 days until December 2020. So does this mean that Bitcoin was in a bear market during this period? Looking at the charts, it can be said that Bitcoin was actually on a trajectory to reach its all-time high of $68,000.
According to another interpretation, Bitcoin may not be in a bear market at the moment. According to some classic definitions, a bear market occurs when a market index or an asset drops by 20% or more from its recent peak.
According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin’s latest peak level was around $31,400 in mid-July 2023. At current prices, Bitcoin is about 13% below this level, and moreover, the cryptocurrency has shown a 34% increase over the past year. Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3, commented on this:
“If you zoom out enough, Bitcoin is just a big green candle and has been in a continuous bull market since 2019. I think those focusing on short time frames may be experiencing a bear market.”
The Bitcoin advocate also hinted that amidst factors such as high inflation, loss of purchasing power, and adoption by nation-states like El Salvador, the current market situation can actually be seen as a rise. Mow also has his own definition of a bear market:
“A bear market is something that high-time preference crypto investors periodically experience.”
Mati Greenspan from Quantum Economics supported Mow’s words by claiming that Bitcoin has never even been in a bear market. Greenspan defended his thesis with these words:
“By considering both the past events and future expectations over the longest time frame, we can determine that Bitcoin is always in a bull market and will continue to be.”