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Bitcoin, in the face of bears’ strength in not allowing the breach of the $32,000 resistance and the bulls’ inability to protect the $30,000 support, is currently a topic of discussion. The on-chain data platform CryptoQuant reported that the weak outlook in the largest cryptocurrency, which has been trapped in a narrow range for three months, is due to fundamental factors such as the protocol’s supply and miner activity.
Bitcoin Could Drop Below $30,000 Support
The daily price chart of Bitcoin indicates that the largest cryptocurrency is consolidating within a tight rectangle formation. This consolidation suggests that there is a point of tension between bulls and bears, and investors need to be prepared for a major directional move.
If the $30,000 support is broken on the daily timeframe, it would mean that the price of Bitcoin could drop to $28,000 and then $25,000. However, if the price dips below $30,000, it could increase the number of short positions and strengthen selling pressure. In such a scenario, the price could be expected to hover around the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (purple) at around $29,000. With a low probability, if investors take action based on the support that the 200-day EMA will provide in the short term at around $29,000, a break above $32,000 could be expected.
Another factor indicating a decrease in the price of Bitcoin is the confirmed sell signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. This sell signal occurred when the blue MACD line crossed above the red signal line.
To present a bullish scenario in the largest cryptocurrency, the conditions for a real rally, such as an increase in trading volume and liquidity, need to be met, and there needs to be a breakout above the rectangle formation in which the price has been trapped. With such a breakout, a move towards $35,000 and a rally up to $38,000 could be expected.
STH and Miner Pressure on Bitcoin Price
Data provided by the on-chain platform CryptoQuant aims to explain what is preventing the price of Bitcoin from breaking out of a narrow accumulation zone. The platform’s researchers have found that the supply of BTC held by Short-Term Holders (STH) has been decreasing since April of this year. The data suggests that this investor group has been emptying their wallets since then, which has put pressure on the price.
However, the metric of Realized Price of Miner Exchange Flows indicates that Bitcoin miners are actively selling. Researchers emphasize that miners are behaving as they did before previous block reward halvings, so this is not a surprising development. In the cycle that completes every four years, miners usually start selling months before the block reward halving in order to increase their efficiency by purchasing new-generation mining devices in the face of the increasing difficulty of mining.
Another factor preventing a breakout in the price of Bitcoin is the output of the Volatility Index. The index indicates the dominance of outflows over inflows in the Bitcoin market. The index has been in a downward trend since April.
