August 2023 has become the worst month for Bitcoin, starting the new week struggling against the $26,000 resistance. The strength of BTC price continues to remain uncertain after the sudden crash 10 days ago, and bulls have not yet regained control of the market to provide a reassuring rebound. With September traditionally being a month of low performance for Bitcoin and with just a few days left until the August monthly close, the outlook remains similarly uncertain. Could there be another downward surprise?
Bitcoin Whales Yet to Make Purchases
While macro triggers remain in the background this week, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data is the most important agenda item for the crypto sector in a relatively calm week. However, investors and analysts are preparing for the worst as they walk on tiptoes and with no visible signs of recovery. According to data from TradingView, BTC/USD dropped to $25,880 before slightly rising after closing at $26,000.
This indicated very low levels that are part of the predictions that popular investor Skew made for the new week, suggesting there could be short pressure. In a section of the analysis, it was stated, “Short positions continue to pile up towards the weekend, expecting some sort of movement at the opening of the US Futures and during the Monday EU session.” Skew also described the weekend BTC movement as “maximum pain price action.”
The monthly close was a key issue for market participants, and after August resulted in an 11% loss, there was turbulence in the cards. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, predicted a journey to the lowest levels in several months. With a chart of the Binance BTC/USD order book, he commented, “Whales are not buying yet, and neither am I.”
“I expect the volatility to continue until the monthly candle closes. I am patiently waiting to test the local low level.”
In addition to low whale order volume, the accompanying order book chart showed a general lack of bid liquidity, with only modest interest at $25,500.
Popular investor Crypto Tony said, “I’m looking for a trigger to enter the place where we went below $25,000, recovered, and pumped. Or if we turn $26,700 into support. Since we are still in the middle range, there is no entry into Bitcoin yet, so there is no safe entry.”
“Or if we turn $26,700 into support. Since we are still in the middle range, there is no entry into Bitcoin yet, so there is no safe entry.”
Popular investor and analyst Rekt Capital warned that beyond the downside, moving averages, which previously served as support before the crash, could now have the opposite effect. Summarizing with the weekly chart, he stated, “BTC rising momentum can act as resistance for moving averages.”
Further analysis hoped for a lower low structure that could be part of a “narrowing rising wedge” on the weekly time frames.
August Could Be the Worst Month in Eight Years
It is no secret that August has shown poor performance for Bitcoin, even by August standards where bulls are rarely celebrated. BTC/USD has dropped 11% this month, and as the weekly close approaches, expectations are rising among market observers. Comparing data from CoinGlass, it can be seen that August 2023 is already competing to be Bitcoin’s worst August since 2015. In August 2022, BTC price experienced a 13.9% loss, marking the beginning of a six-month decline.
However, some believe that based on historical precedents, September could easily result in almost equally poor performance. “Could Bitcoin Fall to $22,000 in September?” questioned Rekt Capital in a recent X post.
“To answer this question, we need to focus on August first. What was the worst August decline in history for BTC? -17% in 2014 and -18% in 2015. Currently in 2023, $BTC is currently at -16% decline. If BTC were to drop -18% this August, it would drop to $24,700. However, this dip may not be the end.”
Continuing, Rekt Capital noted that September usually sees a “single-digit decline.” Against the backdrop of the recent double top formation on the weekly time frames, a target of $22,000 is being set.
