Bitcoin investors in altcoins have started panic selling as Bitcoin erased most of its gains from yesterday. Today, losses have exceeded 5%. Over the past 4 months, investors’ risk appetite has significantly decreased along with trading volumes. The demand or sales on futures contracts now determine the price. So, what does the current outlook indicate for BTC?
The formation on the daily chart suggests that losses may continue for Bitcoin. Analysts from QCP, Rekt Capital, and CAPO, among others, also predict that the price will not begin a strong upward trend as expected.
The formation called a rising wedge occurs when the price bounces within a range defined by two converging trendlines. As a rule of technical analysis, when the price loses the lower trendline, selling pressure intensifies.
Therefore, the BTC price could initially pull back towards $26,800, where it intersects with the 0.236 Fib line, as well as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Breaking below the lower trendline could potentially lead to a drop to $24,000 in the next few months.
October has mostly been a period of upward movement, but it has also witnessed downturns twice in the past 10 years. If September can close positively as an exception, we may see a similar exception for October. Negative developments on the macro front also support the possibility of a decline this month.
While the DXY targets new highs and oil prices remain strong, US Treasury bonds are also gaining value. It is known that future data on the US economy will not be very bright. This also supports the possibility of a rate hike that members have been discussing for the past 2 days at the November 1st meeting.
Many rate hikes have occurred since March, when a rate ceiling was expected. Volumes sharply declined in May when market makers reduced their activities. All of these factors support the expectation of a negative market trend before the halving.
Finally, a bounce could bring a recovery to $28,400 before or after testing the lower trendline of the wedge mentioned above.
One of today’s major news drops was the US JOLTS data, which should not be overlooked. The data, which came in well above expectations, indicates that employment remains strong despite all tightening measures.