Bitcoin Price Will Only Reach Six Figures After Halving Event, According to Jesse Myers

Bitcoin investor and writer Jesse Myers believes that the price of Bitcoin will only reach six figures after the halving event in 2024. Myers, who is the co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, stated in a Twitter post on August 15th that the market will only price in the halving event after it has occurred.

Bitcoin Price Won’t Rise Immediately

Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles have become a focal point again due to the upcoming halving event in the first half of 2024. Miners will see the reward per block decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, causing excitement among analysts about the corresponding decrease in emission and its impact on supply and demand. However, according to Myers, the markets will only see these effects after the halving event.

“Bitcoin won’t reach $100,000 before the next halving.”

The reasoning behind this claim emerges as a criticism of market intuition. Myers argues that the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that markets always reflect the true state of an asset, is “wrong.”

“Instead, the market will price in the changing reality during the 12-18 months after birth.”

Existing analyses show that similar BTC price performance was observed one year before each halving event.

Six-Figure Price is Not a Fantasy

This contradicts some new predictions about how BTC price will develop in the coming months and beyond. Some believe that October is currently a popular deadline for the return of the Bitcoin bull market, and that a breakthrough will occur soon. In terms of price predictions before the halving, a level of $100,000 or higher is not a fantasy.

One of the latest predictions for six-figure Bitcoin came from Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the popular book “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” who doubled his BTC price prediction this week. Meanwhile, historical analysis shows that most of Bitcoin’s price gains occur after the halving, not before.

Trading team Stockmoney Lizards stated that it takes a maximum of 240 days for BTC/USD to reach its all-time high after the last three halvings.

“Everything is very predictable. The all-time high will happen shortly after the 2024 halving.”