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As of July 29, the Bitcoin Blockchain has passed the 100th day since the last halving event, where mining rewards were reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. This critical period not only marks a historical milestone for the cryptocurrency world but also created significant anticipation regarding price movements. Halving highlights the importance of Bitcoin’s limited supply structure and fosters hope for future value increases.
Bitcoin’s Rapid Transformation
Bitcoin’s halving mechanism activates approximately every four years or after 210,000 blocks are mined. This system systematically controls the new Bitcoin supply by reducing miners’ rewards by 50%. As a result, Bitcoin’s supply gradually tightens, creating scarcity unlike fiat currencies that can be produced at will. Since Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million, halving events become even more significant.
The history of Bitcoin’s halving has had notable effects on market dynamics. The first halving in 2012 reduced the reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC per block, followed by reductions to 12.5 BTC and 6.25 BTC in 2016 and 2020, respectively. Each halving has led to significant increases in Bitcoin’s price, typically starting around 100 days after the event.
Research by ETC Group reveals that Bitcoin’s post-halving price increases generally become noticeable around the 100-day mark. Research director Andre Dragosch emphasized that historical performance data supports this trend. After each halving, the performance difference becomes significant at the 100-day threshold, presenting a strong model measured by T-values exceeding 2%.
Historical Model of Price Increases
Dragosch’s data shows that the performance difference peaks not only at the 100-day mark but also around 400 days. ETC Group’s charts reveal that Bitcoin’s average outperformance in the first 100 days post-halving exceeds 100%, reaching quadruple-digit percentages. This data indicates a potential acceleration in Bitcoin’s price increase during the first 100 days after each halving event.
Following the most recent halving on April 20, 2024, the market eagerly awaits to see if this historical model holds true. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the consistency of these trends presents a compelling case for Bitcoin’s bullish outlook in the coming months.
