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Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $62,000 following an assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump, who is running for president again. The incident over the weekend significantly increased Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming November 4 election, raising the probability of his victory to 70% on the prediction market Polymarket. This political development caused fluctuations in assets linked to Trump’s candidacy, leading Bitcoin to rise by 7% and surpass $62,500.
Price Surpasses 200-Day SMA
Bitcoin’s rise is notable as it surpassed the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a significant indicator of long-term trends. This upward movement also broke the downtrend line from the highs of early June, signaling positive momentum for investors. Meanwhile, Trump-themed PoliFi altcoins also saw significant value increases.
As is known, Trump has recently adopted a pro-crypto stance to appeal to the cryptocurrency world. This shift in Trump’s attitude towards cryptocurrencies aims to garner support from voters seeking a more favorable regulatory environment for the crypto world. Experts expect Trump to further emphasize his commitment to the crypto sector during his speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 27.
Markets Begin Pricing in Trump’s Re-election
Alongside these developments, the Chinese yuan and Mexican peso weakened against the US dollar in response to Trump’s potential victory. Trump’s previous administration had contentious trade relations with China, proposing the revival of high tariffs and the cancellation of China’s “most favored nation” status. The Mexican peso was also affected due to strained relations during Trump’s first term.
In the US, futures tied to the 10-year Treasury bond fell, indicating higher yields. Trump’s victory is expected to lead to increased government spending, tax cuts, and growing budget deficits. Many investment banks predict that Trump’s re-election would steepen the yield curve, typically associated with risk aversion in financial markets.
Despite these political and economic uncertainties, futures tied to the S&P 500 began the new trading week with a positive opening, rising by 0.18%. Meanwhile, Asian stocks fell due to disappointing economic growth figures from China. The DXY index, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose by 0.10% to 104.19, reflecting market sentiment amid these developments.
