While institutional outflows of BTC are gradually decreasing, Bitcoin may be experiencing a “momentum shift” even as this process continues. According to the latest data provided by the UK-based investment firm Farside, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) only saw an outflow of $170 million on March 22nd.
Will Bitcoin Price Rise?
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States became the focus of negative attention this week. Compared to the beginning of March, entries into ETFs have significantly decreased, while GBTC outflows have reached a record level, with the assets under management (GBTC) showing a clear decline for five consecutive days.
Rumors suggest that the bankrupt crypto lending firm Genesis has been selling off GBTC throughout the week. Should this situation end, a weakening in the downward pressure on ETFs could also be observed.
Investor and entrepreneur Alistair Milne, made a statement on X (formerly known as Twitter), saying:
Net flows from Bitcoin ETFs dropped to -$51.6 million yesterday, helped by a significant slowdown in GBTC sales. Is momentum returning?
This pivot point theory was also shared by Willy Woo, the head of on-chain data provider Woobull.
Woo, who recently posted on X, presented a new movement model comparing ETF entries to BTC price movements (shown below). The well-known figure refrained from giving details about the metric but indicated that the most intense selling period might have ended.
According to this new model I’m working on, the worst of the sell-offs in this first phase of consolidation may be over. I expect consolidation to progress towards the halving and thus more fluctuations by April.
WhalePanda also made statements supporting this view. Reflecting on the week’s events, the well-known figure maintained optimism about the short-term BTC price movement and suggested that the driving force that could trigger a price increase might emerge.
We’re likely to have a flat weekend now and potentially consolidate a bit more next week before the path to a new ATH. Many people were shaken out, many are waiting for lower levels. With the current emission schedule at $64,000, we need $57.6 million in entries per day to collect the newly mined coins. In less than a month, this figure will halve to $28.8 million.
The Relationship Between GBTC and Bitcoin
Other commentators preferred to criticize GBTC, which only holds half of its AUM since being converted into an ETF in January.
Cryptocurrency writer and educator Vijay Boyapati made the following statement on March 23rd:
The entire ecosystem will be much healthier with GBTC having zero AUM. It was the product at the center of the market crash in 2022 and is currently the product that represents the biggest obstacle in front of Bitcoin with its net outflows.
When looking at Spot Bitcoin ETF products as a whole, they indicate the best ETF launch in history. Since the start of trading, cumulative movements have been above the $12.15 billion level. On the other hand, Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, mentioned that the majority of the impact from institutions has yet to occur.
