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Bitcoin 
$104,150 entered 2025 with high expectations, but it struggled to maintain its momentum. After peaking above $100,000, the leading cryptocurrency fell to $75,000, leaving traders disappointed. This decline is being analyzed in detail through both technical and macroeconomic indicators, raising questions about whether the current correction aligns with market cycles, prompting a reevaluation of long-term strategies.
What On-Chain Data Reveals
Despite the pullback in Bitcoin prices, on-chain metrics suggest that it may indicate a healthy correction. Notably, the MVRV Z-Score measures the difference between market value and realized value, highlighting the current stage of the cycle. This indicator, which was at 3.36 in January, dropped to 1.43 alongside the price decline to $75,000, resembling past cycle lows. This indicates that the market is distancing itself from overvaluation and may be setting the stage for recovery.
Another noteworthy metric is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) indicator. Analyzing when inactive coins change hands, this metric shows that seasoned traders are opting for re-entry after realizing profits. Strategies like this during low price periods can signal a consolidation phase before an uptrend. Thus, the current market calm might be a preparation phase before a significant upturn.
Cyclical Movements and Long-Term Strategies
Bitcoin’s price movements have historically followed a cycle of corrections, recoveries, and rises. The sharp pullbacks experienced in 2017 and 2021 were followed by upward trends, raising hopes for a repeat scenario. Some traders believe the current correction has reached its bottom and are adjusting their positions based on historical data.
As experienced traders buy in during these low levels, the diminishing effect of FOMO (fear of missing out) is noteworthy. Long-term investors entering the market gradually are shaping the accumulation phase before larger waves. This suggests that the groundwork for a surge is quietly being laid.
Despite positive signals from technical indicators, macroeconomic risks are being monitored closely. The correlation with U.S. equities and a slowdown in global growth could restrict Bitcoin’s short-term movements. However, this situation does not hinder long-term orientations. Market uncertainties create an environment favorable for cautious yet determined investors.
