Bitcoin 
$105,392 has historically gained an average of 21% in value each year due to the influence of the Chinese New Year. Over the past 12 years, the leading cryptocurrency has experienced similar increases in 11 of those years, with an 83% likelihood of a price surge during this period. Seasonal effects play a significant role in this trend, underlining Bitcoin’s importance in market movements, especially with the Chinese New Year falling on January 29, 2025.
China’s Impact on the Bitcoin Market
The influence of China on the Bitcoin market significantly increased starting in 2013. In 2012, only 1.5% of the global Bitcoin trading volume originated from China, but this percentage skyrocketed to 10.8% in 2013 and reached 70.8% in 2014.
Capital restrictions, extensive Bitcoin mining operations, and a prevalent speculative investment mentality contributed to this surge. The favorable attitude of state-supported media towards Bitcoin also attracted public interest in the cryptocurrency.
Seasonal Factors and Future Expectations
One of the critical factors influencing Bitcoin’s price is the expansion of its user base. Events like the Chinese New Year enhance Bitcoin’s visibility and increase the number of investors. The tendency for Bitcoin to gain between 20-30% during this festive period exemplifies this effect.
Currently, Bitcoin’s market situation presents a complex picture. Technically, daily indicators have reached oversold levels, while weekly signals suggest Bitcoin remains in the overbought territory. Additionally, macroeconomic factors are influencing price movements, with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and tightening liquidity conditions exerting negative pressure, whereas plans for digital asset reserves in the U.S. and supportive policies bolster prices.
