Considering its market value, ADA Coin is one of the largest cryptocurrencies but has performed poorly. This year, it failed to deliver the desired performance, and the latest network update did not attract investors. On the other hand, losses against BTC exceeded 75%. Is a long-term collapse scenario unfolding for Cardano (ADA)? What is the current situation? Today, we will discuss all these aspects.
ADA Coin and BTC
Cardano (ADA) founder Hoskinson said about two years ago that Bitcoin might not survive and could disappear in the long term. Ripple executives also made statements beyond saying they are better than Bitcoin, suggesting it faces mortal threats. We all remember Ripple’s stance during the 2021 mining crisis, which was akin to “kicking someone when they’re down.”
In October 2022, Hoskinson said the king of cryptocurrency should only exist as wrapped versions (e.g., WBTC) on networks like Ethereum and Cardano, surviving only as an asset. He made pessimistic comments about the Bitcoin network.
However, the Cardano founder, who compared Bitcoin to a “retired football star” in 2021, could not prevent his cryptocurrency from experiencing a 75% loss against BTC. Moreover, what reinforces long-term concerns is that Cardano’s smart contract network is ineffective. Many investors stay away from it for this reason, and the latest update was made to bring voting functions, which are still in the testnet phase on many networks. It is a network whose governance infrastructure has only formed after years.
ADA/BTC Chart Analysis
Trading within a falling wedge formation, ADA Coin has seen significant losses against BTC. If ADA Coin can surpass the upper trend line, it could rally by the height of the wedge. But can it find this strength? In the short term, it seems very difficult because capital inflow into altcoins has significantly weakened.
On the other hand, the falling wedge’s target suggests a further 25% loss. If BTC also falls, this 25% loss will be much greater for ADA Coin in dollar terms.
Cardano Network Analysis
While Hoskinson has said for years that the sector does not need Bitcoin, let’s examine the state of his own project. Looking at daily active and new addresses, the picture is worse than last year. Cryptocurrencies are in an uptrend, network activities are strengthening, but Cardano’s network is hitting new lows in activity.
Since April, Telegram sentiment has weakened, and the number of members is also decreasing. Cardano is losing strength in social sentiment as well.
Transaction fees generated from network usage are at their lowest since 2021. Why does a network that has gained smart contract capabilities and emerged from bear markets continue to experience revenue loss?
On-chain data also does not appear supportive for ADA Coin in general.
