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Crypto markets are continuing sideways today, with BTC holding above the $26,800 support level. However, recent statements are important. Fed member Harker just made comments about interest rates, employment, and inflation. Erdogan’s comment has affected the USDTRY pair. So, what are the details of the latest developments?
Fed Statements and Crypto
At the time of writing this article, Fed member Harker was making his initial assessment after the latest data. The inflation data is not good due to housing and fuel costs. Moreover, the increase in fuel prices can continue due to geopolitical risks. This situation can cause further increase in inflation.
According to FedWatch, the prevailing opinion is that there may not be an interest rate hike at the November 1 meeting. Harker said the following:
“It will take time for interest rate hikes to be fully felt. The labor market will be better balanced. Inflation will decline steadily this year. Growth will be moderate next year, but I do not expect a recession. Tightening credit conditions will have a similar effect to interest rate hikes. Interest rates should remain high for a longer period. I expect to see mass layoffs. If there is no significant change in the data, the Fed can hold interest rates.”
Mass layoffs are important, we experienced this frequently last year. Companies reduced their risks with the expectation of a recession. Harker now expects mass layoffs for unemployment, which he expects to reach 4%. If he turns out to be right, the pressure on the Fed from the employment side will ease. This may be bad for US citizens, but it can reduce the strength of the dollar.
On the other hand, Harker mentioned delayed effects and tightening credit. The impact of front-loaded interest rates has not been fully felt yet, and ongoing credit tightening is leading to similar results as interest rate hikes. Today’s statements were generally positive for cryptocurrencies.
Erdoğan and the Increase in the Dollar
President Erdoğan recently drew attention to the conflicts in the Palestinian region and mentioned Turkey’s downed UAV. Our unmanned aerial vehicle shot down by the US had occupied the agenda. Today, Erdoğan said the following:
“We have a security problem with the US. Didn’t we become NATO allies?”
In the past, we have seen that statements in this tone have had significant consequences for the USDTRY exchange rate. At the time of writing, USDT is trading at 28.01 on the Binance exchange. According to the data from Kapalıçarşı, the selling rate is 27.85.
