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According to CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics firm, U.S.-based Bitcoin 
$103,730 investors remained passive on the election day that determined the new U.S. president. This inactivity reflects the broader trends in Bitcoin trading and investor behavior during significant political events.
Negative Trend in Bitcoin Premium
The Coinbase Bitcoin premium is calculated by determining the percentage difference in Bitcoin prices between the exchanges Coinbase Pro and Binance. According to CryptoQuant data, this premium has remained negative for the past 32 days. On October 24, the premium rose to -0.2% but stabilized at -0.06% during the election hour, indicating that BTC demand in the U.S. is lower compared to global demand.
CryptoQuant noted that price increases for Bitcoin generally last longer when the premium is positive.
“Typically, when the Coinbase premium is positive and maintains that positivity, Bitcoin rises sustainably, indicating strong demand in the U.S.” – CryptoQuant.
Decline in ETF Investment Flows
The negative trend in the Bitcoin premium coincides with daily net flows to spot Bitcoin ETFs hitting a six-month low. According to SoSoValue data, the daily net flow was -541 million dollars on Monday, suggesting that investors exited ETFs before the election.
The firm emphasized that the fundamentals of BTC remain positive.
“Overall demand for Bitcoin is increasing strongly, continuing at a pace similar to that before the 2020 elections.”
Additionally, it was noted that the selling pressure on BTC has decreased. The amount of tokens transferred to exchanges by investors and traders has diminished, with daily exchange inflows now hovering around 45,000 BTC, a significant drop from the 95,000 BTC in March and 73,000 BTC before the 2020 election.
On Tuesday, the BTC price on Coinbase increased by approximately 2.7%, rising above $70,500 from $68,249. According to TradingView data, in the last three U.S. presidential elections, Bitcoin prices experienced significant increases between election day and year-end. CryptoQuant reported that BTC rose by 98% in 2020, 37% in 2016, and 22% in 2012.
Recent developments in the Bitcoin market illustrate how investor behavior shapes during election periods and how market dynamics can be influenced. The negative premium on Coinbase points to a decline in demand in the U.S. market, while the strong fundamental indicators of BTC could yield positive long-term effects.
