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Ethereum (ETH) 
$2,495 stands on the brink of breaking its long-standing downtrend. However, the price movements remain uncertain as critical support levels are being tested. Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci projections may assist in understanding Ethereum’s next move.
What Does the Technical Outlook Indicate for ETH?
The daily price chart reveals that Ethereum entered a correction phase after reaching $4,100 on March 11. Elliott Wave counting indicates that the price began to recover after a fall to $2,150 on February 3.
According to Fibonacci retracement levels, ETH tested the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $2,881 on February 4, which currently acts as resistance. The market structure indicates an effort to gain stability between $2,700 and $2,800.
Ethereum shows promise for recovery by bouncing off the critical support level at $2,503. This level aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and has historically been a strong demand zone.
What Scenarios Are Emerging for Ethereum’s Price?
After exiting a downward channel on January 31, Ethereum rose to $3,430 but subsequently experienced a deeper correction. The hourly chart suggests Ethereum may be in the early stages of a five-wave Elliott formation, with the first wave completing at $2,881 on February 3.
If the third wave occurs and bullish momentum increases, the target could be $3,495, coinciding with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. If Ethereum maintains this momentum, it might rise to $3,730 in the fifth wave, where the 2.0 Fibonacci extension lies.
However, risks persist for Ethereum’s price. If the $2,768 support is broken, a pullback to $2,503 could occur. Falling below this level could invalidate the bullish scenario, despite the hourly RSI indicating slight bullish divergence. For a definitive bullish outlook, the price must remain above $2,881.
