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Spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs recently approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) have sparked discussions within the crypto community about potential price increases.
Analyst’s Bitcoin Commentary
Following the ETF news from Hong Kong, Willy Woo, co-founder and analyst at CMCC Crest, made a statement regarding the potential movement of Bitcoin‘s price.
According to Woo, the new Bitcoin ETFs, based on statements from asset managers, could drive the price to a low of $91,000 and a peak of $650,000 once ETF investors fully deploy their capital.
However, despite this prediction, Woo noted that it will take time for the capital inflow to complete, and he could not provide a definite timeline for when these predictions might materialize. Woo mentioned that after the capital distribution by asset managers is completed, Bitcoin could surpass the capitalization of gold.
Woo’s predictions are based on the unprecedented growth witnessed shortly after the processing of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Woo, addressing the crypto community, roughly calculated the potential impact of ETF adoption on Bitcoin’s price.
Starting his calculations considering the total capital of asset managers currently managing $100 trillion, a typical 2% allocation to Bitcoin (as seen at Fidelity) could mean an influx of $2 trillion into BTC.
Currently, there is approximately $561,159,959 in investments in Bitcoin measurable on-chain. With the inclusion of capital from the ETFs, the total investment in Bitcoin could reach $2.56 trillion.
Woo then drew attention to the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to calculate different market potential assets. Looking at the peaks of bull markets, the MVRV ratio is typically 5 times, while it is 0.7 times at the bottoms of bear markets.
This calculation could mean values of $12.8 trillion and $1.8 trillion, indicating price levels per coin of $650,000 and $91,000, respectively.
On the other hand, Woo mentioned that these predictions could also indicate a possible bottom level, while also noting that uncalculated entries and wallets have not been included in this account.
