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Cryptocurrency and stock market declines prompted the first comments from Fed member Austan B. Goolsbee today. Goolsbee stated there is no data indicating the economy is overheating. He mentioned that employment figures are weaker than expected but noted this is not yet a sign of a recession. Goolsbee emphasized the need for the Fed to make forward-looking decisions, particularly highlighting the complexity in the manufacturing sector.
Complexity in the Manufacturing Sector
Goolsbee indicated that weakness in manufacturing was expected due to the pandemic’s effects and pointed out warning signs in other data such as workplace defaults. Despite this, he noted that economic growth continues steadily. Goolsbee emphasized that GDP figures were stronger than expected and mentioned that global events are making things more complicated.
Goolsbee stated there is some weakness in the employment market that needs attention. He mentioned that they are in the most restrictive position in decades and if the economy is not overheating, they should not tighten restrictions further. Goolsbee stressed that the Fed needs to respond to broad conditions, noting that inflation is decreasing and employment is relatively good.
September Meeting and Data
Goolsbee suggested that the Fed might wait for more data before the September meeting, stating they cannot exceed normal levels in employment. If they do, a stronger response would be necessary. Goolsbee said the Fed’s job is not to react to one month’s employment figures but to respond if employment data indicates a long-term trend.
Goolsbee mentioned that if stock market movements indicate a long-term slowdown in growth to the Fed, they should respond accordingly. He emphasized that the stock market is much more volatile than the Fed and that the Fed will respond to conditions. Goolsbee reiterated the need to pay attention to the weakness in the employment market while maintaining a balanced risk stance.
Economic Growth and Forward-Looking Decisions
Goolsbee stated that economic growth continues steadily and emphasized the need to monitor data closely. He mentioned the expectation of weakness in the manufacturing sector due to the pandemic’s effects and pointed out warning signs in other data. Goolsbee reiterated the need for the Fed to be forward-looking in its decisions.
It has become clear once again that the Fed needs to make the right decisions by carefully monitoring economic data. Uncertainties in employment and manufacturing data seem to play a significant role in the Fed’s forward-looking decisions. Steady economic growth is considered a positive sign. Goolsbee did not provide any details regarding a potential interest rate cut in his statements.
