Bitcoin investment vehicle Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is currently trading at just 17% below the BTC price, according to data tracking source CoinGlass. The latest data as of September 9 confirms that GBTC shares are trading at a price 17.17% lower than the BTC/USD parity. Some analysts point out that September is historically a challenging month for Bitcoin, while October usually brings a rally, highlighting the possibility of a turnaround in the market.
GBTC Recovers Two-Year Loss
GBTC, the largest institutional investment vehicle for Bitcoin, has seen significant interest since the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, announced plans to apply for the first Bitcoin spot price-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US. This news seemed like a recommendation to the Grayscale managers, who are in the midst of a legal battle with US regulators to convert GBTC into a spot ETF. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has yet to approve a single spot ETF application and recently postponed decisions on multiple projects.
Nevertheless, Grayscale won a significant battle with the SEC last month, providing substantial support to GBTC’s price performance. The discount of GBTC shares to the Bitcoin price was only 17.17% on September 9, marking the best levels since December 2021. Since then, the premium known as the net asset value (NAV) discount has been negative and at one point reached almost 50%.
No Hope for Bitcoin Bulls
GBTC has started to move away from the BTC price and has begun to experience a decline again, testing levels rarely seen in the past six months. According to data from TradingView, the BTC price was trading below $25,148 at the time of writing, and the opening of Wall Street further ignited the already weakened market. September tends to be a weak month for the BTC/USD pair, with Bitcoin losing up to 10% during this month. Popular investor and analyst CryptoCon shared part of his daily comment with his followers:
“September is historically a pretty bad month for Bitcoin, and that’s just the facts. October, on the other hand, historically sees significant gains.”
CryptoCon added a chart highlighting late November as an important time to monitor signs of life in Bitcoin. This reflects a current theory that designates November 28 as the “start of a bull run” for the Bitcoin price every four years.
