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Bitcoin did not experience the feared drop in price following the block reward halving. However, it also did not rise. The price, stuck in a narrow range, began to weaken the altcoins. XRP and SOL Coin, like other cryptocurrencies, continue to see around 4% losses today. So, what price is Ethereum targeting and what do the current on-chain data indicate for BTC?
Bitcoin Halving and On-chain Data
Technical analysis is as important as news flow and on-chain signals. With a market value of $1.31 trillion, BTC stands at $64,700. The miner reserve, which rose to 1.95 million by the end of January, fell back to 1.92 million on April 16. Geopolitical risks and the approaching halving pushed some miners to sell.
However, after the halving, miners began to accumulate again. The miner reserve increased by 0.11% over the last 7 days. The weekly contraction is at 0.7%, meaning miners have not yet replaced the assets they sold in the short term.
Another important data to watch is the BTC transfer to exchanges. On April 18, the largest influx since September 23 of the previous year occurred. 18,350 BTC were recorded as net entries to exchanges hours before the halving. There was another net entry on April 21, but yesterday’s data shows we are starting to see net exits. So, for now, no more assets are being sent to exchanges for selling.
When examining the order books, we see that buyers remain relatively weak in the short term and selling liquidity is strong.
Google search trend data is also weak. The search volume, which dropped to 34, reflects the weakening investor interest. After hitting a low of 28, volumes increased, possibly indicating a further weakening before investor interest recovers.
What Will Ethereum’s Price Be?
On March 12, the price broke below the rising trend line and is now at $3,166. Bad news on the ETF front is the biggest barrier to Ethereum’s price rise. The levels of $3,122 and $2,966 are crucial. Closures below these levels could see Ether prices drop to $2,747 and $2,478.
For now, unless there is a surprise development on the BTC front, weakness will continue and it will continue to trade in a narrow range. The scenario looks no different for Ether. In a surprise rise, closures above $3,350 could target $3,542 and $3,733.
