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In 2021, a trader who accurately forecasted the onset of the bear market crash suggests that the lowest level of Bitcoin (BTC) has likely already been seen, based on historical models.
Analyst’s Commentary on the Bitcoin Market
The well-known analyst, using the pseudonym Dave the Wave, tells his thousands of followers on the social media platform X that the monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for Bitcoin is increasingly narrowing, which traditionally indicates at least a temporary slowdown in the bullish trend.
The MACD indicator is considered a momentum indicator used by investors to understand potential trend reversal points.
However, Dave the Wave notes that the MACD has not reached the same levels as seen in previous bull seasons, indicating that BTC’s price is much lower.
Yes, there is a contraction in the BTC monthly histogram, momentum is slowing, but I do not consider this definitive for a significant price drop:
- The MACD line did not reach its peak
- A maturing market
Over a longer time frame, I would not be surprised to see something different developing from the model.
Looking at the graph shared by the analyst, it is evident that BTC’s monthly MACD has not yet approached the diagonal resistance, suggesting that the end of the bull market is still far off.
In a weekly timeframe analysis, the trader points out that Bitcoin’s current MACD structure resembles that of July 2016, just after a halving and just before a major bull run.
If I had to compare the current BTC weekly MACD with a previous one, I would place it here. Remember, the highlighted MACD cross indicates that a low price is already factored in.
What’s the Current State of Bitcoin?
As of this writing, the price of BTC appears to be struggling to maintain above $63,000. After a 2.93% increase over the last 24 hours, the price is at $62,800. BTC’s market cap has also risen following this price movement.
The market cap has increased to $1.24 trillion, and the 24-hour trading volume has also seen a noticeable increase. BTC’s 24-hour trading volume has surged by 110%, reaching $27.8 billion.
Considering this price movement and the increase in trading volume, it would not be incorrect to say that investor interest in Bitcoin and subsequently in cryptocurrencies is increasingly growing as of today.
