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Factor LLC’s CEO and veteran technical analyst, Peter Brandt, who has over 40 years of experience, recently announced a cautious stance on Bitcoin’s (BTC) upward trend. The renowned analyst pointed to the possibility that Bitcoin might have reached its peak in the last bull market, highlighting the latest record high of $73,750 as a potential turning point.
Brandt Suggests Bull Market Might Be Over
In his latest analysis shared with CoinDesk, Brandt summarized the possibility that Bitcoin might have reached its peak in its upward movement and that the bull market might be over, a view contrary to his previous prediction in February. At that time, he had forecasted that the rise starting from the bear market lows in November 2022 could potentially continue until September 2025, with prices possibly reaching up to $200,000.
Brandt’s recent Bitcoin projection is based on the statistical concept of “exponential decay,” which describes the process of reducing a quantity by a consistent percentage over a certain period. He noted that historically, Bitcoin tends to move within approximately four-year bull/bear cycles, often linked to block reward halvings. Each subsequent bull cycle tends to show about 80% less strength in terms of price multiplication compared to the previous one.
Referring to historical data, the analyst pointed out that if the 80% decline is statistically consistent, Bitcoin’s recent record high of $73,835 on March 14, 2024, aligns with historical exponential declines. This analysis also relies on the observed diminishing return model in successive bull markets.
Brandt’s analysis also references Bitcoin’s past performance, including its rise to record levels above $73,000 in March, which corresponds to a significant rise from the lowest level of the bear market at $15,473 in November 2022 following the collapse and bankruptcy of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX.
Despite insights from the exponential decay theory, the analyst added that past data are not guarantees of future results, especially since Bitcoin’s historical upward trends have been in light of four-year block reward halvings. Notably, the most recent block reward halving occurred on April 20, 2024, reducing the reward per mined block from 6.25 to 3.12 BTC.
Potential Peak Range of $140-160K Could Be Ultimate High
Brandt added that the general consensus in the cryptocurrency market is that the ongoing consolidation between $60,000 and $70,000 could eventually lead to an upward movement. The “Pre/Post Block Reward Halving” cycle structure could mean a potential peak in the range of $140,000 to $160,000 by late summer or early autumn 2025, and this thesis continues to be a primary driving force in Bitcoin ownership.
Nevertheless, the analyst remains vigilant about the exponential decay theory and noted that more evidence is needed to determine whether this decay will affect the rising trend that began in November 2022. At the time this article was prepared, the largest cryptocurrency was trading at $62,300, down 1.5% over the last 24 hours.
