One of the reasons for investors’ anxiety was the upcoming inflation data today. As a result, the price of BTC also dropped. Rising fuel prices and strong employment data are important signals that indicate the need for further tightening by the Fed. This situation is not good for cryptocurrencies, of course. As the Fed tightens, inflows into risk markets are diminishing.
Yesterday, the PPI data was released and it was above expectations. This indicates that the pressure on inflation may continue. Due to the fact that the price of oil exceeded $90 last month, fuel prices remained high. Despite the decline this month, the level of 85 is maintained. This indicates that the inflation increase supported by fuel prices could anger the Fed.
The details of the August inflation data were as follows;
“The gasoline index was the largest contributor to the increase in all items on a monthly basis. More than half of the increase came from here. In August, all major energy component indices increased. The food index increased by 0.2% in August. As in July, it also increased in August. While the food at home index increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, the food away from home index increased by 0.3% in August. All items index increased by 3.7% in the 12-month period ending in August, showing a larger increase than the August index.”
For the past two weeks, we have been hearing messages from Fed members that further tightening may be necessary if necessary. However, yesterday we read statements that instead of more hikes, the focus should be on how tight the policy will remain. This also raised the question of “Has the interest rate ceiling been reached?”
For now, the Fed is indicating that the tight monetary policy can remain at its peak until June-September 2024 as it has postponed cuts with the dot plot.
Today, the expectation is that CPI will increase by 0.2% on a monthly basis. The previous month’s data showed a 0.6% increase. The monthly expectation for core inflation is 0.4% compared to the previous month’s 0.3%. The annual headline inflation expectation is 4.2%, this figure was 3.7% last month. The expectation for core inflation is 4.3%.
The announced figures are;
Annual CPI: 3.7% (Expectation: 4.2% – Previous: 3.7%)
Annual Core CPI: 4.1% (Expectation: 4.3% – Previous: 4.3%)
The data was positive for cryptocurrencies and the price of Bitcoin regained the $26,800 support. Despite the increase in fuel prices, BTC can test $27,000 due to the limited nature of the inflation rise. However, if miner sales continue, new demand may be undermined.