The shallow volatility in the price of Bitcoin continues today. BTC is finding buyers at $29,421 at the time of writing this article. The stagnation in price has had a significant negative impact on altcoins. The continued trading within a narrow range for weeks by both BTC and altcoins may be signaling something to investors.
Altcoin market had a disastrous period in 2022 and appeared neutral but hopeful in the first half of 2023. The value of altcoins against BTC reached historic lows. According to the long-term data of the Altcoin Season Index, the altcoin market has fallen to levels last seen in 2019-2020. This information alone signifies a bull signal for investors. Historical data shows that these low levels came before the exponential bull market of the TOTAL2 chart that started in late 2020.
Furthermore, Blockchain Center’s data on the potential altcoin season represents the relationship between the growth of Bitcoin (BTC) price and the growth of the top 50 altcoin prices. If the BTC price is increasing more than the prices of the top altcoins (or decreasing less), it indicates an ongoing Bitcoin season.
On the other hand, if the BTC price is falling more than altcoins (or increasing less), it is a sign that the altcoin market is dominant (values above 75). Naturally, most of the time, the chart operates in the neutral range between 25 and 75. This indicates that neither the Bitcoin market nor the altcoin market currently dominates the cryptocurrency sector.
Additionally, the Altcoin Season Index includes 3 time frames: monthly, quarterly (seasonal), and yearly. In the long term, we are currently witnessing a clear Bitcoin season in the second one.
The historical low seen in January 2019 rightly excites investors. The previous period, which deepened the accumulation phase, lasted from May 2019 to June 2020. Therefore, when we adapt this 13-month period to today’s market conditions, we can see that the altcoin market did not rise as expected until September 2024.
A new altcoin bull that coincides with the Halving, which occurs about six months later, is supported by historical data. Moreover, most experts expect ATH for BTC to coincide with the beginning of 2025 when inflation drops to 2%.
In 2017, the altcoin market experienced an exponential bull market, which took TOTAL2 to a peak of $474.50 billion in January 2018. The market then experienced a sharp decline for 12 months until it hit a bottom of $36.75 billion in December 2018.
In summary, this historical data suggests that altcoin investors may not see their investments rise for a longer period of time.