Everyone is becoming sure that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy from the beginning of 2022. This has initiated a boring period. Risk markets, including cryptocurrencies, perform negatively during periods when the Fed raises interest rates. Now that the Fed is approaching the end of interest rate hikes, the metric that warned investors last year is sounding the alarm again.
When Will Bitcoin Rise?
The metric of Bitcoin, which found the bottom of the bear market in 2022, says that the upward trend is still strong. This indicates that a rise may start from the $26,000 level soon. The latest market evaluation by the founder of LookIntoBitcoin draws attention to this issue. Bitcoin’s Realized HODL Waves (RHODL) metric gives hope to expert investors who focus on it.
Although the 10% decrease in BTC price last week disrupted many metrics, RHODL provides a clear outlook in the medium and long term. This metric excites investors rightfully because it did not mislead during the bottom of 2022.
Bitcoin Realized Cap HODL Waves
The RHODL metric takes the current HODL Waves data that groups BTC supply based on the last time each coin or especially UTXO moved and weights them according to the realized price, i.e., the last price at which it moved. Although it may sound complex, the data provides a clear view.
Swift stated the following in his article on LookIntoBitcoin:
“Peaks in younger age bands highlight periods when they have proportionally higher weight in Realized Cap compared to older Realized Cap age bands. This is important in showing that the market is willing to pay higher values for Bitcoin today and recently compared to historical norms. This may be a good indicator that the market is starting to overheat.”
Currently, coin bands that last moved three to six months ago are rising, indicating the beginning of a bull market for BTC. Swift also defines the recent decline as a movement associated with the bull trend.
In December 2022, when the BTC price was at $15,600 levels, Swift announced that Bitcoin was at the bottom using this metric.
