Legal expert Fred Rispoli highlighted that Ripple 
$1 may have a greater chance in the lawsuit filed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to Rispoli, if an impartial panel is present in the case, Ripple’s likelihood of winning increases. However, if judges show a tendency to rule in favor of the government, the SEC could have a 70 to 80 percent chance of winning.
Ripple’s Probability of Defeating the SEC
During the Thinking Crypto podcast, Rispoli stated that if the judges in the second circuit appellate court are neutral, Ripple’s chances could be as high as 70 percent. He emphasized that the identity of the three judges assigned to the case is crucial for this probability.
Previously, we reported that the SEC announced its appeal against Judge Analisa Torres’ ruling on August 7. The XRP community remains uncertain whether this appeal will only cover the $125 million penalty or also include Torres’ decision regarding last year’s programmatic sales. Fred Rispoli remarked:
“The SEC is likely to appeal everything. The notice of appeal relates not just to the penalty ruling but to the entire summary judgment.”
Could the SEC Lose?
Rispoli presented a scenario in which the second circuit court could reverse Torres’ decisions in favor of the SEC. He noted that Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, is considering filing a cross-appeal.
Rispoli characterized the failure to file a cross-appeal as “foolish.” He pointed out that such a move would boost Ripple’s chances of winning on appeal to 70 percent, given the court’s likelihood of upholding all decisions instead of presenting differing views.
Rispoli predicts that the litigation may last until at least January 2026. This estimate aligns with the time both parties need to complete their filing processes. The SEC is expected to file its opening statement in December, while Ripple’s response is anticipated in March.
Considering the case’s timeline, Rispoli stated that the crypto firm needs to advance on the legislative front. Nevertheless, the decision made by Torres asserting that XRP is not a security will remain valid until regulatory clarity is established or an appellate decision is rendered.
Ripple’s ongoing battle with the SEC holds significant implications for the crypto market, with the case’s outcome potentially creating widespread effects.
