The crypto market saw Litecoin (LTC), one of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, concluding the past week with over 25% gain. On July 3rd, LTC’s market value surpassed $8 billion, making a leap to its year’s peak at $114. Although market analysts predict a gradual continuation of the surge in the leading altcoin, on-chain data suggests this rise could come to a halt, at least temporarily.
A Warning of Up to 40% Drop for LTC
With approximately 40 days remaining until Litecoin’s block reward halving, there’s a strong anticipation of bull runs surrounding the popular altcoin. While analysts give high price targets hinting at further increases for LTC, on-chain data signal investors to be cautious. Noted crypto analyst Ali Martinez issued a downturn warning for LTC, stating:
The current 30-day MVRV of Litecoin hovers around 35%. When we look at past data, it is observed that every time LTC’s 30-day MVRV exceeds 30% since 2018, sharp declines follow. These decreases generally range from 30% to 40%.
Twice since the beginning of the year, Litecoin’s price exceeded $100, yet each surpassing of this critical threshold was followed by harsh declines of up to 20%.
Litecoin’s Upcoming Block Reward Halving
The Litecoin Blockchain is preparing to go through its next halving event in the first week of the following month. In this event, named halving, the amount of LTC given to Litecoin miners per block mined will be reduced by half. This reduction in the amount of new LTC entering the market is expected to impact supply and demand, potentially triggering an increase in price. The halving event, rapidly approaching, is pointed out as the reason for the 53% rise in Litecoin’s value since the start of the year.
On the other hand, the excitement of the halving event has led to a significant increase in activity on the Litecoin network, with the network’s hashrate breaking records and reaching an all-time high. Litecoin’s hashrate has been on the rise throughout June, and this increase in hashrate has been accompanied by an increase in mining difficulty. This has made it more difficult to extract and add new blocks to the Litecoin Blockchain. Miners responded to this difficulty by adding more mining devices to their mining operations, aiming to increase their chances of successfully finding a block.
