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Popular investor and analyst Rekt Capital announced that Bitcoin investors might only have a two-week period to buy Bitcoin at low prices before a rally starts prior to the halving event. Rekt Capital, in a post shared with his 349,000 followers on January 29, stated that market movements around the Bitcoin halving event generally occur in five stages, with the first three stages happening before the halving event.
Notable Analyst’s Striking Statements
Rekt pointed out that previous Bitcoin halving events typically experienced a steep decline in the preceding months, providing fantastic returns for investors, and indicated that the year 2024 will not be an exception. The Bitcoin halving event planned for April currently means a reduction in mining rewards for Bitcoin miners and is widely seen as a bullish factor for the price of Bitcoin.
Rekt highlighted that Bitcoin experienced a pullback of about 18% in January, and mentioned that there is currently a two-week period during which another significant pullback can be expected:
“Generally, any pullback during this period is likely to represent one of the last buying opportunities before the halving event for Bitcoin.”
Afterward, Bitcoin tends to enter what Rekt calls the pre-halving rally stage, about 60 days after the halving event. In the accompanying chart, shown with a light blue box, short-term investors tend to buy into the excitement towards the halving event, but then tend to sell the news around the time of the halving event itself.
The Halving Event and Bitcoin
The sell-the-news phenomenon typically occurs one to three weeks after the halving event, which Rekt refers to as the pre-halving pullback. In 2016, there was a 38% price drop in the weeks before the halving event, while in 2020 there was a 20% drop.
After a successful halving event, Rekt details a long and tedious period where many investors are shaken due to disappointment in the price movement post-halving, often characterized by a sideways price action. Historically, this period lasts an average of 150 days.
Lastly, Rekt explained that Bitcoin enters what he calls the parabolic growth trend stage, where after months of sideways movement and general accumulation, Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth phases. While Rekt bases his thesis on the halving event as the focal point of Bitcoin’s price movement, not all market participants agree, and some experts argue that the halving has become less useful as a benchmark for evaluating price movement.
