The bull season of 2021 was extremely dynamic, exciting, and profitable. However, the following 2 years turned things around. Projects that were able to withstand the challenging environment of bear markets were rewarded only temporarily during the bull season. Then we saw a resurgence of overselling. So where do we stand now?
Will Bitcoin Rise?
On-chain data is promising, showing that the masses preparing for the bull season are quietly progressing. Bitcoin investors are withdrawing their assets from exchanges and putting them to sleep, waiting for the right time to sell. According to Glassnode’s latest active Bitcoin supply chart, the amount of inactive BTC in the 1, 3, and 5-year timeframes is at an all-time high since July 2023.
36.8 million addresses have been holding their BTC for over 365 days. CryptoQuant charts also highlight the decreasing exchange supply since July 2021. The supply ready for sale on exchanges has dropped to 2 million levels.
Coinglass monitors the supply on exchanges in real-time, and the largest exchange, Binance, only has 543,281 BTC left. Moreover, the exchange experienced significant Bitcoin outflows in the last 30 days. 21,645 BTC was withdrawn from the exchange last month. Coinbase Pro, with its 435,530 BTC balance, ranks second on the list, and it saw 3,612 BTC withdrawals from the exchange in the last 30 days.
All these data indicate that investors’ accumulation trend continues despite the negative price performance and long-term investors are getting bullish as the 2024 halving approaches. If the supply on exchanges keeps decreasing, there will be less BTC available for purchase in a market sentiment that turns positive. This indicates that there could be bigger price movements.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Every major drop engraves in investors’ minds the idea that there will be no more rise from now on. This is understandable in the depressive environment of bear markets. However, BTC has always managed to rise again even under the worst conditions in the past. When more than 70% of the volume came from hacked exchanges, conditions were not better than today. Then the price reached its peaks above $20,000 and $60,000.
When we look at the weekly chart, BTC has been trading within a parallel channel since mid-March 2023. The price, fluctuating between roughly $25,000 and $31,600, revisited the bottom after the July peak in the week of September 11th. After the 4-week selling period, BTC has been relatively bullish for the past 2 weeks. At this stage, breaking above $28,000 could initiate a move towards $31,500.
Above this range, we might witness a similar upward movement to the one that started in October 2020.
