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While altcoins rise under the leadership of Bitcoin (BTC), venture capital firm IOSG Ventures issued a warning of a downturn. According to research conducted by IOSG Ventures, the cryptocurrency market is approaching the middle of a bull cycle and has entered the second half of the cycle. If the market follows historical patterns, this bull market could face at least 10 negative corrections (over -5%) before reaching the peak of its cycle.
The Midpoint of the Bull Market for Bitcoin and Altcoins
The recently published research report by venture capital firm IOSG Ventures serves as a warning for both Bitcoin and altcoin holders. According to the firm, market participants are currently in a bull market that has been ongoing for a year.
Based on historical patterns referenced by IOSG Ventures, the cryptocurrency market is approaching the midpoint of the current bull cycle, which means it has entered the second half of this cycle. The research reveals that Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average has recently crossed above the 200-day moving average for the second time during this cycle, providing a positive signal. This technical indicator has a strong history, with over 80% of such crossovers leading to positive returns in the medium term.
The research also emphasizes that the current bull cycle for Bitcoin is following a much smoother trajectory compared to previous cycles, and if it continues to follow historical patterns, at least 10 negative corrections (over 5%) could be experienced before reaching the peak of the cycle.
Emphasis on “Block Reward Halving” in the Research
IOSG Ventures’ research indicates that Bitcoin has historically provided short-term gains before and after block reward halvings, also known as halvings, and has generally exhibited significant positive performance.
The firm also adds that while block reward halvings are often seen as potential driving forces of market cycles, the coincidence of these events with global macro cycles suggests that the effect might be coincidental.
