The trade dispute between Trump and China has raised uncertainties regarding the U.S. economy, indicating a potential risk of recession by 2025. Apollo Global Management economist Torsten Slok has stated that if the current tariff conditions persist, an economic downturn could begin in the summer. This development raises concerns about the volatility of economic indicators and the possibility of increased supply chain issues.
Tariffs and the Economy
The U.S. government is attempting to support domestic production through high tariffs on products imported from China. The imposed tariff rate of 145%, along with a 90-day temporary regulation, has contributed to increased uncertainty in the markets. The 60% drop in cargo shipments has highlighted the extent of disruptions within the supply chain.
Expert Opinions and Expectations
Economists predict that if current trade policies continue, the U.S. economy could face a 4% decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and experience a recession lasting two quarters. Institutions such as Polymarket and JP Morgan assess the probability of an economic downturn to be between 56% and 60%, while also noting the potential increase in market risks.
Torsten Slok: “If tariff conditions remain stable, a recession by 2025 is likely.”
Evaluations indicate that the trade war affects not only tariff rates but also impacts stocks, bonds, gold, and cryptocurrency markets. This situation has prompted the need for caution among market participants and economic actors.
Calls from the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts may alleviate some effects of an economic downturn; however, concrete actions have yet to be taken. Major retailers are warning that potential supply issues and similar disruptions could negatively affect the labor market.
Small businesses are likely to suffer more from this situation, leading to potential bankruptcies and layoffs. Upcoming unemployment data is expected to reveal these risks further.
Based on current indicators, the U.S. economy is anticipated to follow a volatile path due to existing trade policies. Economic uncertainty and rising risks underscore the importance of timely preventive measures.
