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Recent US retail sales data has emerged as a focal point for market watchers. The figures presented a supportive outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) 
$105,842, despite the broader context of delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve making a significant surge in the data unexpected. Nevertheless, the data can be considered favorable for cryptocurrency advocates.
US Retail Sales Overview
According to the Commerce Department, retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.9%, contrasting with the anticipated decline of 0.2%. Along with this monthly decrease, the previous month’s figures were revised upward. Although investor demand appears to be weakening, retail sales still show a 4.2% annual increase, highlighting resilience. Total sales were reported at $723.9 billion, with December’s figures revised up from 0.4% to 0.7%.
Analysis of Consumer Spending Trends
Sales in food services and beverages experienced a monthly increase of nearly 1%, with a 5.4% rise year-over-year. Conversely, motor vehicle demand saw a decline of about 3%, raising concerns for the Fed given the 6.4% annual growth.
Supporting the increase in BTC prices, December showed a rise in retail sales, while January indicated a general slowdown. This trend suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious with their spending. The decline in vehicle sales due to high interest rates may encourage the Fed to act more decisively in the future to prevent economic stagnation.
In summary, reduced spending implies lower demand and consequently less pressure on inflation. The Fed might consider lowering interest rates before September due to consumer confidence signals. Notably, Trump asserted yesterday that rates will decrease.
We will closely monitor upcoming unemployment, inflation, and particularly PCE data.
