Although the last week of August started with promising signs, the SEC’s ETF rejections were priced in early, causing a decline in BTC price due to profit-taking. While Bitcoin price is expected to initiate a strong rally by reaching higher peaks at some point, this scenario is not currently valid. Investors consider every peak as an opportunity for small profits.
Bitcoin Data at 5-Month Low
The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of fatigue, as evidenced by the decreasing open interest in Bitcoin futures. According to a recent Glassnode report, Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, also experienced a decline in open interest to the lowest level in five months, reaching $2,796,429,005. This contraction in futures trading activities is causing despair among investors, especially as BTC struggles to reach $27,000.
Despite ongoing struggles in the spot market, Grayscale’s victory against the SEC on August 29 provided some morale to the market. However, this regulatory win has not yet indicated a permanent turnaround in sentiment.
Current Analysis of Bitcoin
Kaiko data suggests that open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts is starting to recover but has not yet surpassed the levels seen after the collapse of the Terra network in May 2022.
Traders and analysts closely monitor futures open interest to gauge market sentiment. The decrease in open interest may indicate a change in investment strategy as institutional traders may reassess their positions. Experts see the buzz generated by Grayscale’s victory as an encouraging sign. However, the cautious stance in the market will remain until other positive triggers, such as the long-awaited approval of a Bitcoin ETF, emerge.
The second decisions regarding ETF applications will be announced on October 15. If the SEC grants early approval, it will be a significant surprise. However, if the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate ceiling at its September 20 meeting and the SEC approves several ETFs next month, it could signal the end of bear markets. As we have previously mentioned, the Grayscale decision does not seem reversible. Moreover, it significantly increases the likelihood of ETF approval. Bloomberg experts give a 75% chance for ETF approval this year and 95% chance for the next.
