It is a topic of curiosity why macro data has not been affecting cryptocurrencies enough in the past few months. However, there is a clear answer to this. Because the incoming data has largely been in favor of the risk markets. The foundation of the rally in the US stock markets is as much related to strong earnings reports as it is to these data.
Important Fed Statements
Before we get into the statements, let’s take a look at why the price of cryptocurrencies has not been fluctuating. We said that it did not affect because the macro data was in favor, because when there were unfavorable data, the price was quickly reacting. If stocks are rising and crypto is sideways or in a downward trend, there is a negative divergence here. The basis of the negative divergence in the crypto is the increasing regulatory pressure. Despite the recent data, the absence of a recession, and the stock markets rallying, the crypto markets could not rise because of this reason.
Although the recent data was not as good as expected, it showed that the Fed was successful in its policy. At the time of writing, Neel Kashkari from the Fed made some important statements.
“I want to see convincing evidence that inflation is turning towards 2%. It is too early to say that interest rate hikes are over. We are far from lowering interest rates. We should avoid a scenario like in the 1970s when interest rate hikes were stopped too early. We need to see more data for the interest rate decision. The labor market is still quite tight. I do not see evidence that a recession is approaching. The impact of monetary policy can be felt with a delay in the economy. I do not see that the problems in China are affecting the US. I feel good about the progress in inflation. The resilience of the economy surprised us.”
These statements indicate that if there is no abnormal data flow in September, the interest rate ceiling could be announced. After the ceiling, the Fed will keep interest rates at the peak for at least 6 months. It is likely that the decision will be announced in September for this. If the interest rate ceiling is announced and the US continues to stay away from a recession, assets like crypto and gold may rise. However, further interest rate increases may lead to the appreciation of the dollar against the TL and other currencies.
