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XRP seems to have been overshadowed by the recent volatility in the crypto market. The underperforming asset experienced a significant decline, particularly at the beginning of September. One of the reasons behind this is considered to be the movement of large whales. In this article, we will examine the current state of XRP and possible scenarios for September.
XRP Underperforms the Market
On September 5th, the price of XRP dropped by approximately 1.5% to $0.50, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market, which also experienced a 1% decline during the same period. This decline coincided with the rise of the US dollar index (DXY). The correlation between the dollar and cryptocurrencies has been consistently negative since July.
The decline of XRP appears to be part of a horizontal consolidation trend. Investors buy XRP as soon as the price rises, keeping it within a narrow trading range of $0.49 to $0.51. One possible reason behind the increasing selling pressure on XRP is likely the movement of large whales.
For example, on September 3rd, an anonymous address sent approximately 29.7 million XRP tokens worth $15 million to the BitStamp exchange. Although this amount is not significant enough to influence XRP market trends, the sender is one of the top 98 richest XRP holders, according to data tracked by CoinCarp.
Looking at the supply between whale addresses of XRP, a distribution among most investors can be observed. For instance, the supply of XRP held by entities with balances between 1 million and 10 million tokens (brown) has been decreasing since September 3rd.
Similarly, the supply of XRP held by whales with balances between 100 million and 1 billion tokens (green) also decreased during the same period. Interestingly, wallets with balances between 10 million and 100 million XRP (black) have taken over the supply from wallets with balances between 100 million and 1 billion.
XRP Price Analysis for September
From a technical perspective, XRP appears to be entering the breakout phase of a bearish flag formation. A bearish flag is a descending pattern characterized by the consolidation of price within a range defined by a descending trendline resistance and an ascending trendline support. Once the price falls below the lower trendline and reaches the height of the previous decline, the flag target is revealed.
As a result of this technical analysis rule, the price of XRP carries a risk of dropping to around $0.40 in September 2023, which is approximately 20% lower than the current price levels. However, a closing above XRP’s 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA) around $0.52 (blue wave) could invalidate or delay the breakout of the bearish flag. Instead, the price is preparing to rise towards the upper trendline near $0.54 or the 50-day EMA around $0.56 (red wave). This bullish scenario could result in a 7-15% price increase from current levels in September.
