Ambitious predictions are flying about for Aptos, an altcoin trading on Binance that bears numerous resemblances to Solana. The question now is whether their prices will mirror each other. Aptos entered a period of quiet after a rally in January, and its short-term outlook doesn’t seem promising. But can it surpass $250? Let’s explore these questions together.
Both are fast, cheap, popular altcoins with strong communities and institutional backing. Solana paid the price when it lost some of its institutional support and saw a dip, but it still remains among the top ten cryptos. Aptos, on the other hand, is very new and hasn’t yet witnessed a real bull run.
If history repeats itself, what was said for Solana in 2021, those enormous profit stories, could be said for altcoins introduced in this bear season. Can Aptos write such a profit story? Only time will tell, and it may not be as fortunate as Solana was.
In 2021, Solana didn’t have as many competitors and was battling Ethereum. Many Solana competitors have emerged, some of which have allocated serious shares to their institutional investors. These could potentially create selling pressure with their unlockable keys until the bull season.
Could the price reach $250? On November 7, 2021, when Solana reached its historical peak, its market capitalization was a full $75 billion. As of August 2024, the circulation supply of Aptos is expected to be around 370 million.
The math is straightforward: if Aptos attracts significant interest in the next bull season like Solana and reaches a market value of $75 billion, we would expect it to hit $202 when we divide $75 billion by 370 million. And if the cumulative value of the crypto markets reaches $10 trillion, the price should proportionally hit $600. However, this assumes a lot of conditions align in Aptos’ favor.
The issue is, as mentioned, the vast number of competitors. Naturally, they will share a significant part of this market value. If we assume that Aptos will share the layer1 market with five serious competitors, it would need to make a historical peak between $40 and $120. All these are contingent on the arrival of the next bull and Aptos maintaining its strength until then. A delay in the bull peak would require a downward revision of the $40-$120 range, proportional to the newly unlocked token.